A newbie’s information to betting the Tremendous Bowl
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Gambling Analyst
Super Bowl Sunday is an overwhelming day for many Americans, especially for any new sports bettor entering the betting party for the first time.
The American Gaming Association reported that 23.2 million Americans are planning a bet on this year’s Super Bowl and an estimated $ 4.3 billion wagered across the country. These estimates are pretty high, but I don’t think they are high enough. Not everyone who bets admits they are betting, although it is now legal in 20 states and Washington, DC
Anyway, we wanted to answer a few frequently asked questions about this year’s game, and provide a quick glossary of some sports betting terms to make your life easier.
Drum roll please …
I just wanted to bet for fun. What would you say to encourage me to bet?
Go with your belly. That’s 1A for me when it comes to placing a sports bet. Opinions fly from all directions, especially for the Super Bowl when casual observers turn into experts. Even my dentist said, “You can’t go against Tom Brady!” Lately.
Yes, I can, doc. Watch me!
Should I have set the spread or the moneyline?
I am a fan of maximizing your money.
If you like Kansas City I would put the three points. That’s because the juice is only -110 or -115 to put three (scroll down to the glossary if you’re already scratching your head). Chances are if the Chiefs win, it’s three points or more. I would be surprised if the game ended up 24-23 or 36-34. It’s possible, sure, but the math says it’s very unlikely. If you bet on the Chief’s moneyline, you need to bet -160 or $ 160 to win $ 100. No thanks.
You have to make a decision if you like Tampa Bay. I prefer to score points with an underdog to be on the safe side, but your payout will increase if you use a dog to win the game instantly. You can bet Bucs +3 at -110 or the Bucs money line at +135. That’s $ 110 to win $ 100 or $ 100 to win $ 135. The rest is up to you.
Why did some sports bets have different point spreads in the past two weeks? There were times when Kansas City was -3 in one place and -3.5 in another.
Sports betting generally try to balance their ledgers. You don’t want to write spread tickets worth $ 20,000 for Team A and $ 60,000 for Team B. Of course, every situation is different, but getting closer to the center is ideal. If Book A is in Kansas City -3 and Book B is in Kansas City -3.5, Book A probably wants to put more bets on the Chiefs for some reason. Book B will likely give you the extra half point to entice you into betting on the buccaneers. It’s hard to know individual motives, but that’s my guess.
This particular Super Bowl spread is interesting too, given that certain books in Tampa Bay have a lot of liability for winning the Super Bowl. Remember, the Bucs were 65 to 1 high to win the entire enchilada before Brady brought his talents south. When the rumors started, sports betting began to increase the odds of winning to around 40 to 1. After Brady signed, the consensus number was 20 to 1, which was even lower. I know several bookmakers who don’t want any part of a Buccaneers profit. These large payouts add up quickly.
Do people pale the public? Who are they all betting on this weekend?
There are definitely people who pale the public – that is, those who find out which side the majority of people are betting on and taking the other side. I don’t think it should ever be a blind strategy, but some people will fight me with it. They will tell you that the “Sharps” win 55 out of 100 games and the “Public” win a lot less. And that’s true.
There’s also the counter-argument that the public won 4-0 on the division weekend when the Buccaneers, Bills, Browns and Packers each reported on the spread in their respective game. These were all “public” sites, so that’s what it is. Most sports betting report that there are more tickets and money with Chiefs.
Should I really be scared of betting Brady in the Super Bowl?
I’m not scared of Brady himself, but he makes me nervous. I’m a lot more scared of betting against Mahomes, if we’re honest.
Is there such a thing as a lock?
-110: Standard juice in a sports bet. A bet of -110 means you need to place $ 11 to win $ 10 or $ 110 to win $ 100. Most soccer teams and totals will be -110, but books can adjust the juice.
ATS: A team’s record against the (point) spread. ATS.
Bookmaker: Someone who takes bets on a sporting event. Bookmakers are constantly controlling the risk and shifting their numbers.
Home page: When a point spread bet wins. Really a great feeling.
Edge: An advantage that a player often perceives mathematically.
Handle: The amount of dollars wagered on a sporting event. The record for a Super Bowl in the state of Nevada is $ 158.5 million in Super Bowl LII between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Stop: The amount a sports betting car makes. Or rather, the profit. In the Super Bowl LII mentioned above, Nevada books made only $ 1.1 million (0.7%) of the $ 158.5 million that was wagered. This is because the Eagles have been a very popular betting team and many bettors put the Eagles on the money line. In the past 20 years, Nevada has lost money on just one big game – the books lost a total of $ 2.6 million (-2.8%) in Super Bowl XLII when the New York Giants angered the Patriots. The standard hold for a sportsbook in any given year is 5 to 6%.
Hook: Half point. A team that scores -3.5 puts three and the hook.
House: As in “The House Always Wins,” which is generally true at the end of the day. The house is another name for sports betting.
Key number: Landing numbers with the highest probability. In football, 3 and 7 are the most important numbers. These are directly related to the number of points awarded for a field goal and a touchdown as well as an additional point.
Moneyline: A bet on a team to win the game. FOX Bet deals with Kansas City -160 and Tampa Bay +130 in Super Bowl LV. The -160 means you have to risk $ 160 to win $ 100. Conversely, +130 means you are risking $ 100 to win $ 130.
Odds maker: A person who creates the opening number of a sporting event.
Parlay: A multiplier bet with at least two teams. The payout increases as more bets are added to the parlay. A standard two-teamer with two bets of -110 pays approximately +260. A standard three-teamer pays around +600. You must hit all of your legs to redeem a parlay. One loss and you’re out. These are the breaks.
Distribution of points: The inequality of a quota maker between two teams. Kansas City -3 tells you the guys behind the counter believe the Chiefs are three points better than the Bucs. A point spread is extremely fluid and usually moves based on the money that is placed in the betting markets.
Backward movement: When a line movement contradicts what the betting public likes. This happened in this year’s NFC championship. Over 70 or 75% of the spread bets were placed on the Packers to cover, but the line moved from Packers -3.5 to -3.
Sharp: A respectable weather.
Place: An unrecognized weather.
Teaser: A combination bet that allows you to add 6 points to at least two bets. Example: You can add Tampa Bay +3 by 6 points and expand Tampa Bay +9. Now you need another dance partner. Similar to a parlay, you can add more legs to your teaser to increase the chances of winning. You have to hit all the legs to get a teaser. Same rules as a parlay.
Total: The number of a quota maker of how many points two teams can get together to score a goal. FOX Bet currently has a grand total of 56 on Sunday. You can bet a grand total of “Over” or “Under”.
Strong: The commission or the juice is paid to place a sports bet.
That’s about it. Hopefully this was helpful to those on the fence getting wet on their first Super Bowl bet. It’s not as intimidating as you originally thought, is it?
By the way, I’m on the following:
Chiefs -3 (-115)
First quarter below 10 points (+100)
First quarter below 27.5 points (-110)
Longest TD under 47.5 yards (-110)
Enjoy the game and remember to always bet with conviction!
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